Russia Forecasts Brent Crude Average Price at $80-85/Barrel in 2023

Novak reaffirmed the commitment to production cuts, stating that OPEC+ does not set a target for oil prices, but merely seeks to balance supply and demand.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said in a television interview that due to OPEC+ production cuts, Russia expects the average Brent crude oil price to be between $80 and $85 per barrel next year.

Novak stated on the Russian state television channel Rossiya 24 that this outlook is based on estimates from several analysts and preliminary forecasts for Russia's socio-economic development.

Novak said that OPEC+ countries are not striving to target oil prices at a certain level. He said:

"We are tasked with balancing supply and demand to stabilize the oil industry."

Due to a plunge in crude oil prices, OPEC+ decided to reduce daily production by 2.2 million barrels in the first quarter of next year. This includes Russia's commitment to increase crude and product exports cuts from the previous 300,000 barrels to 500,000 barrels. Novak added in early December that there may be an additional reduction of 50,000 barrels per day in exports this month.

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Previously, Novak also warned that if the upcoming production cuts fail to curb market volatility, the first quarter's production cuts may be extended.

However, despite OPEC's best efforts, oil prices continue to fall amid unexpectedly strong U.S. production, with U.S. crude oil output reaching an all-time high.

Novak said that Russia is a responsible participant in the OPEC+ production cut agreement, "We have fulfilled our obligations."

Russia acknowledges this fact as the country's energy exports have surged significantly in recent weeks. For example, in the four weeks ending December 17, Russia's seaborne crude oil exports jumped to 3.28 million barrels per day, while the country's average export volume at the beginning of this month was 3.04 million barrels per day.Over the past two years, Russian oil producers have significantly altered their overseas operations, targeting the Asian market in the context of European embargoes on Russian crude oil and petroleum products, as well as price cap sanctions imposed by the G7.

Novak stated that this year, China accounts for approximately 45%-50% of Russia's crude oil and petroleum product exports, while India's share has skyrocketed from virtually zero two years ago to around 40%.

Regarding Europe, he anticipates that Russia's oil exports to Europe this year will not exceed 5% of Russia's total overseas supply, compared to a high of 45% in previous years.

According to data from the Russian Ministry of Finance, the revenue from Russia's oil and gas industry in 2023 is expected to reach about 9 trillion rubles, roughly equivalent to the level in 2021.

The energy and fuel complex contributes over 27% to Russia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and accounts for about 57% of Russia's total export revenue.

Previously, Russian Finance Minister Siluanov indicated that the Russian federal budget has not increased its reliance on revenue from the oil and gas industry, which constitutes approximately one-third of Russia's fiscal income.

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