Compared to the same period in September 2024, the transaction volumes of new and second-hand houses in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Chengdu (referred to as "Rong") significantly increased during the third and fourth weeks of October. However, compared to October 2023, the transaction volumes of new houses in these five major cities showed divergence.

At the end of September 2024, a package of new real estate policies was introduced. How effective are these policies now? Since the impact of policies has a certain time lag, we mainly analyzed the real estate transaction volumes during the third and fourth weeks of October 2024. We summed up the transaction volumes of the third and fourth weeks and compared them with different historical periods.

We selected the five cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Chengdu, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen representing first-tier cities, Hangzhou representing 1.5-tier cities, and Chengdu representing second-tier cities.

Let's look at their second-hand and new house transaction situations separately. First, let's look at the transaction volumes of second-hand houses.

From the perspective of second-hand houses, during the third and fourth weeks of October 2024, the transaction areas of Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Chengdu were 884,000 square meters, 1,069,000 square meters, 361,000 square meters, 330,000 square meters, and 1,192,000 square meters, respectively. In Beijing's second-hand house transaction area, the proportion of residential housing was 94%; in Shenzhen, it was 90%; in Hangzhou, it was 96%; in Chengdu, it was 89%; and the data for Shanghai was not available. It is not difficult to see that the main force of second-hand house transactions is second-hand residential housing.

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Compared to the third and fourth weeks of September 2024, the transaction areas of Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Chengdu increased by 66.8%, 80.6%, 140.4%, 128.4%, and 75.7%, respectively; compared to the third and fourth weeks of October 2023, the transaction areas of Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Chengdu increased by 54.1%, 70.8%, 109.3%, 11.7%, and 8.2%, respectively.

Therefore, whether compared to September 2024 or October 2023, the transaction volumes of second-hand houses in the five major cities have significantly increased.

Next, let's look at the transaction volumes of new houses.

Adding up the transaction volume data for the third and fourth weeks of October 2024, the transaction areas of Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Chengdu were 385,000 square meters, 742,000 square meters, 291,000 square meters, 265,000 square meters, and 742,000 square meters, respectively. The transaction areas of new houses in these five major cities are all smaller than the transaction areas of second-hand houses during the same period.

Compared to the third and fourth weeks of September 2024, the transaction areas of Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Chengdu increased by 49.8%, 58.8%, 140.2%, 12.3%, and 39.3%, respectively.Although there was a slight change in the number of available commercial housing units for sale in the five major cities in October 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, the impact of the available quantity on real estate sales was not significant. Therefore, the results compared to the same period in 2023 can still reflect the differences in market sentiment. Compared to the third and fourth weeks of October 2023, the transaction area of new houses in Beijing increased by 48.2%, and Shenzhen by 49.9%; however, Shanghai still decreased by 10.3%, Hangzhou by 41.7%, and Chengdu by 39.7%.

October 2020 was a period of active transactions in the five major cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Chengdu. Compared to the total transaction volume in the third and fourth weeks of October 2020, the transaction areas in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Chengdu decreased by 14.5%, 17.8%, 10.8%, 45.6%, and 29.4%, respectively.

Therefore, compared to September 2024, the transaction volume of new houses in the five major cities all increased, but compared to October 2023, Beijing and Shenzhen increased, while Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Chengdu decreased. In the third and fourth weeks of October 2024, the transaction volume of new houses in the five major cities was lower than that in October 2020.