Due to the strong growth in U.S. crude oil production, Goldman Sachs expects the increase in oil prices next year to be weaker than previously anticipated, but the bank still does not believe that Saudi Arabia will "flip the table"......

Goldman Sachs, known as the "commodity flag bearer," currently expects the increase in oil prices next year to be lower than previously forecasted, mainly attributed to the robust growth in U.S. crude oil production.

Goldman Sachs strategists, led by Daan Struyven, said in a report on Sunday that they have revised down their expectations for the international benchmark Brent crude oil price in 2024 to a range of $70-90 per barrel, from the previous range of $80-100 per barrel.

Goldman Sachs forecasts that Brent crude oil prices will reach a peak of $85 per barrel by June 2024, and then average $81 or $80 per barrel over the next two years, lower than the previously predicted $92 per barrel.

According to Goldman Sachs, "The recent increase in U.S. supply has reinforced the main feature of the crude oil market in 2023, which is that the production of crude oil from countries outside OPEC+ has far exceeded expectations."

Strategists expect that oil prices will experience moderate fluctuations in the coming year, as spare capacity will limit the impact of supply tightening and the room for price increases.

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At the same time, downward pressure on oil prices will also be limited, as OPEC+ measures to prevent oversupply will continue to exist, and loose financial conditions should provide a baseline for oil demand.

In addition, China's economic recovery and the replenishment of U.S. strategic petroleum reserves should also limit the downside risks for oil prices.

Meanwhile, the Wall Street giant stated that Saudi Arabia is unlikely to "flood" the market by reversing production cuts and releasing a large amount of new supply, which would lower oil prices and weaken the strength of U.S. crude oil producers, although other industry experts hold different opinions.

Goldman Sachs added, "Firstly, it is mainly non-price factors that have driven the supply advantage of the United States, including the one-time alleviation of supply restrictions, the reduction of well inventories, and the surge in production of some private oil companies before being acquired."Secondly, the rationale for inciting Saudi Arabia to launch a price war is weaker than in 1985, when Saudi Arabia's market share plummeted; the reason for significantly increasing supply is also less compelling than in 2014, when Saudi investments were less ambitious, and excessive borrowing left U.S. shale oil companies vulnerable.

On Monday, crude oil prices rebounded due to concerns over supply disruptions caused by tensions in the Red Sea. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil rose by 2.77% to $78.21 per barrel, and Brent crude oil increased by 2.83% to $78.73 per barrel.

However, since last September, oil prices have fallen by approximately 20%.