The PCE inflation data for tomorrow may also face certain downside risks, making it more difficult for the Federal Reserve to refute market expectations for rate cuts...

At 21:30 Beijing time on Thursday, the U.S. third-quarter real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter final value recorded at 4.9%, missing the expected 5.20%. The U.S. third-quarter real personal consumption expenditure quarter-on-quarter final value recorded at 3.1%, lower than the expected 3.6%.

The U.S. third-quarter core PCE price index annualized quarter-on-quarter final value recorded at 2%, below the expected 2.30%. The number of initial jobless claims for the week ending December 16 recorded at 205,000 people, lower than the expected 215,000.

A series of downward revisions to economic data have solidified the prospect of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield falling to 3.84%, the lowest level since July 27. The U.S. Dollar Index broke below the 102 mark, touching a low of 101.82.

Spot gold surged more than $10 in the short term after the data release, standing above $2,040 per ounce, while spot silver rose by $0.1.

Non-U.S. currencies普遍上涨, with the euro against the U.S. dollar standing above 1.10, and the U.S. dollar against the yen falling by 1% during the day. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures continued their upward trend, reaching pre-market highs.

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A series of downward revisions to economic data have solidified the prospect of a rate cut, with the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March next year returning above 80%.

Analysts said that although the third-quarter GDP data is now old news, the data still leans dovish due to the core inflation annualized quarter-on-quarter data being revised down from 2.3% to 2%.

This has stimulated bonds, which in turn has stimulated stocks. It is worth noting that this may also bring certain downside risks to tomorrow's PCE inflation data, but it depends on how the monthly breakdown turns out.

In recent months, the U.S. inflation outlook has steadily improved, with last week's monthly consumer and producer price reports showing that the inflation rate over the past six months (measured by the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator) may have returned to the Federal Reserve's 2% annual inflation target.This unexpected development led some Federal Reserve officials to hastily revise their subsequent forecasts, while also bolstering forecasters' confidence that data for the next six months may also be similarly lackluster. The PCE data, which is set to be released tomorrow, is expected to officially confirm this outcome and help solidify the rationale for rate cuts in the coming quarters.

Meanwhile, the number of unemployment benefit claims once again fell below expectations, with initial claims essentially stabilizing at 205,000. Remaining near historical lows, this indicates that the labor market remains resilient as businesses seek to retain employees.

Despite rising interest rates, the U.S. economy has continued to grow at a moderate pace this year, as a resilient labor market helps to support consumer spending.

However, in recent months, the number of continuing claims for unemployment benefits has been trending upwards, suggesting that Americans laid off by their employers are struggling to find new jobs.

Overall, with low inflation and a robust labor market, the current macroeconomic backdrop is optimistic, which will reinforce Wall Street's expectations for a soft landing in the U.S.

Despite Federal Reserve officials' attempts to dampen market expectations for rate cuts following last week's policy meeting, investors have remained largely unaffected.

Analysts widely believe this is merely a strategy to prevent further easing of financial conditions, rather than indicating that the prospect of an imminent shift towards rate cuts by the Fed is incorrect.